Polls will go up and down.
The pundits were wrong in March, April, and June when they said conventional wisdom was that the out-of-office party won the mid-terms. Then, there was the Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v Wade (overturning the most intimate freedom in our lives, about when, whether or with whom we have a child); then the January 6 hearings–exposing the criminal conspiracy by MAGA Republicans to overthrow the election they knew they lost; then the achievements of the Biden Administration ($35/insulin, $2,000 max for Rx seniors, student debt cancellation for many, greatest investment in climate ever, etc.)
Polls: reflect how they WEIGHT the polls expecting the Turnout that they project–WHO will turn out.
To correct past errors, they are weighting the polls to reflect a more conservative turnout. But that all means WHO we turn out is the key issue.
Polls: what we need is The Margin of EFFORT (as we look at the polls) – NOT the margin of error. It is up to us!
Remember: Biden won by only 5 vote/precinct in AZ (10,457 votes), GA (11,779 votes), WI (20,682 votes). Every vote counts.
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